{"id":5505,"date":"2017-02-13T12:07:04","date_gmt":"2017-02-13T17:07:04","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.rocketshipgames.com\/blogs\/tjkopena\/?p=5505"},"modified":"2021-02-17T17:28:12","modified_gmt":"2021-02-17T22:28:12","slug":"x-wing-pilot-statistics","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rocketshipgames.com\/blogs\/tjkopena\/2017\/02\/x-wing-pilot-statistics\/","title":{"rendered":"X-Wing Pilot Statistics"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Recently I got hassled at the <a href=\"http:\/\/redcapscorner.com\/\">local shop<\/a> for breaking out my <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rocketshipgames.com\/blogs\/tjkopena\/2016\/12\/x-wing-beginner-squad-building\/\">B-Wings<\/a> for yet another Friday of <em>X-Wing,<\/em> so\u00a0I started developing\u00a0some new\u00a0lists.\u00a0In one idea\u00a0I had a\u00a0point to spend and open slots on a\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/xwing-miniatures.wikia.com\/wiki\/Green_Squadron_Pilot\">Green Squadron A-Wing<\/a>. I realized that you could combo <a href=\"http:\/\/xwing-miniatures.wikia.com\/wiki\/Veteran_Instincts\">Veteran Instincts<\/a>, <a href=\"http:\/\/xwing-miniatures.wikia.com\/wiki\/A-Wing_Test_Pilot\">A-Wing Test Pilot<\/a>, and <a href=\"http:\/\/xwing-miniatures.wikia.com\/wiki\/A-Wing_Test_Pilot\">Adaptability<\/a> to bump it\u00a0up 3 pilot skill levels\u00a0for just 1 squad point cost, taking it\u00a0to PS6. But would that be actually do anything, let alone be the best option? A credible theory I&#8217;ve put some stock into is that there&#8217;s almost no value to increasing pilot skill in the\u00a0middle band from ~3 to ~6, because aces will still beat\u00a0you and swarm ships were already below you.<\/p>\n<p>So, I got to wondering: What is the average skill of all the pilots in the game? The theory is that if the combo puts the A-Wing&#8217;s pilot skill\u00a0above\u00a0half the ships in the game then it would get to shoot more than half the ships it might encounter before they\u00a0could shoot it, and\u00a0that&#8217;s maybe worthwhile. But then I had an\u00a0important follow-on observation: There are a ton of unpopular pilots and ships\u00a0in the game. So what is\u00a0the\u00a0average skill of all the pilots people actually use?<\/p>\n<p>To answer those questions I wrote some simple programs\u00a0to compile\u00a0the necessary data from a couple sources. That data is then exported as simple CSV files, so that even non-programmers can play around with them using any spreadsheet tool they wish and conduct their own data-driven investigations toward\u00a0squadron building. The scripts as well as archived outputs are linked below, along with an example of\u00a0how to use the data in answering those\u00a0pilot skill questions. From there\u00a0I also continue\u00a0development of my <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rocketshipgames.com\/blogs\/tjkopena\/2016\/12\/x-wing-beginner-squad-building\/\">metrics for evaluating beginner squadrons<\/a>.<\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_5506\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.rocketshipgames.com\/blogs\/tjkopena\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/02\/IMG_20170210_211940.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-5506\" class=\"wp-image-5506 size-large\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rocketshipgames.com\/blogs\/tjkopena\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/02\/IMG_20170210_211940-1024x768.jpg\" width=\"530\" height=\"398\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.rocketshipgames.com\/blogs\/tjkopena\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/02\/IMG_20170210_211940-1024x768.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.rocketshipgames.com\/blogs\/tjkopena\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/02\/IMG_20170210_211940-300x225.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.rocketshipgames.com\/blogs\/tjkopena\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/02\/IMG_20170210_211940-768x576.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.rocketshipgames.com\/blogs\/tjkopena\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/02\/IMG_20170210_211940-60x45.jpg 60w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 530px) 100vw, 530px\" \/><\/a><p id=\"caption-attachment-5506\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">A brave Green Squadron pilot homes in on a B-Wing.<\/p><\/div>\n<h2>Data<\/h2>\n<p>The <em>X-Wing<\/em>\u00a0community has built a number of great resources and\u00a0data sets, many of which interoperate.\u00a0In particular,\u00a0most of them use identifiers\u00a0and schemas from the <a href=\"https:\/\/github.com\/elistevens\/xws-spec\">X-Wing Squadron Specification (XWS)<\/a> so that they can do things like import and export squad lists to and from other tools. Several tools also directly utilize the comprehensive card data\u00a0and images\u00a0collected in the <a href=\"https:\/\/github.com\/guidokessels\/xwing-data\">X-Wing\u00a0Data<\/a> repository. Many tournament lists have been upload over the past ~3 years to <a href=\"http:\/\/lists.starwarsclubhouse.com\/\">List Juggler<\/a>\u00a0by event organizers and community members. The\u00a0latter itself presents a lot of interesting data for analysis (e.g., its <a href=\"http:\/\/lists.starwarsclubhouse.com\/time_series\">time series charts<\/a>), but I couldn&#8217;t seem to clearly answer some of the questions I had with just its web interface. So I wrote a script to download\u00a0lists from\u00a0List Juggler, and another to correlate them with the ship and pilot data from X-Wing Data. Those scripts are available\u00a0in the <a href=\"https:\/\/github.com\/RocketshipGames\/xwing-csv\">X-Wing CSV<\/a>\u00a0repository on GitHub.<\/p>\n<p>So that non-programmers don&#8217;t have to set up the programming environment\u00a0required to run the scripts, <a href=\"https:\/\/github.com\/RocketshipGames\/xwing-csv\/tree\/master\/archives\">archived data is\u00a0included<\/a>\u00a0in the repository. These are\u00a0linked from\u00a0the <a href=\"https:\/\/github.com\/RocketshipGames\/xwing-csv\">main README page<\/a>, which will be updated as new releases come out.<\/p>\n<p>There are currently three files\u00a0generated by the compilation script:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><code>ships.csv<\/code>:\u00a0All the nominal ships stats and properties. Technically stats are defined by\u00a0specific pilot cards, but in reality there is only one pilot with different baseline stats for its ship class: The <a href=\"http:\/\/xwing-miniatures.wikia.com\/wiki\/Outer_Rim_Smuggler\">Outer Rim Smuggler<\/a>, a lesser version of the YT-1300. So most people quite reasonably tend to think in terms of ship classes\u00a0and associated stats, which are presented here. The Smuggler is included as a separate entry. Auto-include titles like <a href=\"http:\/\/xwing-miniatures.wikia.com\/wiki\/Alliance_Overhaul\">Alliance Overhaul<\/a> and similar upgrades that effectively change the baseline stats for a\u00a0class are not incorporated.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li><code>pilots.csv<\/code>:\u00a0All of the pilots in the game, their ship stats, and counts breaking down all the times that pilot has been used in a list captured in List Juggler. These\u00a0are reported\u00a0for all lists as well as lists for events held within\u00a0the past 4 months.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li><code>lists.csv<\/code>: Summaries of all the lists captured in List Juggler. The core of this are summed stats needed to do some <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rocketshipgames.com\/blogs\/tjkopena\/2016\/12\/x-wing-beginner-squad-building\/\">simple squadron analysis<\/a> based on raw attacks, agility, hull points+shields, and the number of ships.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>For consistency in its most typical use the compilation only includes standard dogfight tournaments. A\u00a0small number of events in List Juggler are marked\u00a0as standard but report lists of over 100 points in ships alone, which are discarded. The script does not currently\u00a0evaluate upgrade card costs to determine invalidity of other lists.<\/p>\n<p>There are\u00a0also a small number of lists reported\u00a0that are obviously\u00a0either incomplete\u00a0or for a smaller, non-standard\u00a0event format, such as Escalation or Ace Wing, but not marked appropriately. It\u00a0is sometimes difficult to tell even manually if these are valid, and would be somewhat\u00a0difficult to reliably weed out automatically. For\u00a0now they are therefore simply included&#8212;future code additions processing all the upgrades might tackle excluding these. However, they&#8217;re such a miniscule portion of the reported lists, a few dozen out of tens of thousands, that they don&#8217;t affect the statistics meaningfully.<\/p>\n<p>As\u00a0a quick summary, there are currently 40 ships\u00a0in the game for standard play (plus the Outer Rim Smuggler), and 5 more for Epic play.\u00a0With Wave X having just hit stores recently, there are 234 dogfighting pilots. The scripts are able to export 21,419 squadron lists from List Juggler, encompassing\u00a066,677 pilot selections\u00a0fielded over the course of 1,555 tournaments from summer 2014 to now. That&#8217;s quite a bit of usage data for a tabletop game, enabling\u00a0a variety of basic quantitative analyses.<\/p>\n<h2>Pilot Skill<\/h2>\n<p>Answering the initial question about average pilot skill is\u00a0trivial with\u00a0the pilot data. First import <code>pilots.csv<\/code> into your spreadsheet program;\u00a0in this demonstration\u00a0I use <a href=\"https:\/\/docs.google.com\/spreadsheets\">Google Spreadsheets<\/a>. Insert two rows at the top of the table. At the top of the Skill column (H), enter the formula <code>=average(H4:H)<\/code>. Given that baseline pilot skill is on a fixed scale from 1 to 9 there can&#8217;t be outliers skewing the average, but just to check we&#8217;ll also compute the <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Median\">median<\/a>. In the second row of the Skill column enter the formula <code>=median(H4:H)<\/code>.<\/p>\n<p>The two values are almost identical, 5.085 for the average and 5 for the median.\u00a0That the median is 5 means by definition that at least half the pilots in the game have a pilot skill of 5 or lower. We can check this precisely by adding another row and another formula, <code>=countif(H5:H,\"&lt;=5\")<\/code>. Finally, to quickly get a count of how many ships there are,\u00a0add another row and the formula\u00a0<code>=counta(H6:H)<\/code>.\u00a0Those\u00a0reveal that 126 out of 234 distinct pilots in the game, 54%, have pilot skill 5 or less.<\/p>\n<p>That means we can make a simple claim about spending a squad point to boost a Green Squadron pilot to PS6: It&#8217;ll then shoot before more than 54% of the pilots it could <em>possibly<\/em> face off against. But what about the pilots it is <em>likely<\/em> to encounter?<\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_5515\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.rocketshipgames.com\/blogs\/tjkopena\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/02\/Screenshot_2017-02-13_03-35-05.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-5515\" class=\"size-large wp-image-5515\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rocketshipgames.com\/blogs\/tjkopena\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/02\/Screenshot_2017-02-13_03-35-05-1024x516.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"530\" height=\"267\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.rocketshipgames.com\/blogs\/tjkopena\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/02\/Screenshot_2017-02-13_03-35-05-1024x516.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.rocketshipgames.com\/blogs\/tjkopena\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/02\/Screenshot_2017-02-13_03-35-05-300x151.png 300w, https:\/\/www.rocketshipgames.com\/blogs\/tjkopena\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/02\/Screenshot_2017-02-13_03-35-05-768x387.png 768w, https:\/\/www.rocketshipgames.com\/blogs\/tjkopena\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/02\/Screenshot_2017-02-13_03-35-05-60x30.png 60w, https:\/\/www.rocketshipgames.com\/blogs\/tjkopena\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/02\/Screenshot_2017-02-13_03-35-05.png 1345w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 530px) 100vw, 530px\" \/><\/a><p id=\"caption-attachment-5515\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Computing average and media pilot skill for all pilots in the game.<\/p><\/div>\n<p>That can also be answered using <code>pilots.csv<\/code>, still in Google Docs. First freeze the display so the labels remain in view while scrolling: Select the &#8220;Name&#8221; label, cell A5. Under the View -&gt; Freeze menu, select &#8220;Up to current row&#8221; and then &#8220;Up to current column.&#8221; The column labels and pilot names will now be fixed in the display.<\/p>\n<p>All the way over to the right of the data, use the\u00a0empty column AM to multiply the Total All Time Uses (Y) and Skill (H) columns by entering the formula <code>=Y6*H6<\/code> in the first pilot&#8217;s row (Wedge Antilles). Select that cell and all those below it down to the bottom of the data and then hit CTRL+D to copy that formula (&#8220;fill down&#8221;) into all the selected cells. Back at the top, use the empty cell AM4 to sum all of those values with the formula <code>=sum(AM6:AM)<\/code>. Put similar in column Y, All Time Total Uses: =sum(Y6:Y). In another empty cell divide the former by the latter, <code>=AM4\/Y4<\/code>, to get the average of all pilot skills ever used in List Juggler&#8217;s tournament reports. The median would take a bit more effort\u00a0to compute\u00a0from this data compilation, but as\u00a0there are no pilot skill outliers the average\u00a0shouldn&#8217;t be overly skewed so\u00a0it&#8217;s not necessary to do so.<\/p>\n<p>The result of average pilot skill 5.06 is shockingly close to the average and median for what&#8217;s available in the game. I expected the average pilot skill in actual use to be closer to\u00a07 given the longstanding popularity of high pilot skill aces like <a href=\"http:\/\/xwing-miniatures.wikia.com\/wiki\/Soontir_Fel\">Soontir Fel.<\/a>\u00a0A follow-up question then is that perhaps\u00a0pilot skill has crept higher with more recent releases? However, that turns out not to be the case. The data compilation also includes Total Recent Uses, which can be similarly used to compute the average pilot skill over lists used in\u00a0the past four months. That average is a tad higher at 5.5, but still very close to the center of the possible range.<\/p>\n<p>Caveat large scale errors in the scripts or data, it now seems plausible to extend the claim about the PS6 Green Squadron Pilot: It will shoot before the majority of the pilots it will actually face in competitive play. We can actually compute this from the compiled data, PS6 is higher than 52% of all pilots\u00a0used.\u00a0Maybe there are better things to do with that squadron point, but now we have hard data about what effect the combo\u00a0would have and quantitative evidence that it might at least be useful. For a counter example, it would probably not be worthwhile to boost the pilot to just PS4 as the large majority of ships would still shoot before it, and in a blocking role it may as well stay at PS3.<\/p>\n<h2>Game Development<\/h2>\n<p>Another indication\u00a0from these numbers\u00a0is that pilot skill is well\u00a0balanced. That the average over all pilots in the game is at the mid-point of the range\u00a0indicates that their designs are probably being spread across it evenly. More importantly, a range of pilots from both the low and high sides of the skill spectrum are useful and actually seeing competitive play. We&#8217;re not, for example, seeing a decided favoring of high pilot skill.<\/p>\n<p>The former, including\u00a0pilots with a range of pilot skills, is of course simply a matter of\u00a0the designers deciding to do so, and you can see this in the blisters nearly all\u00a0including a mix of pilot skills. But balancing the other stats, points costs, and special abilities to make\u00a0the low pilot skill generics actually as useful in their way as the high pilot skill aces (and vice versa) cannot be\u00a0easy. That&#8217;s impressive design and balancing for a collectible game grown over several\u00a0years now, and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.fantasyflightgames.com\/en\/index\/\">Fantasy Flight<\/a> deserves credit for it. Obviously this is just one measure, but it&#8217;s indicative of intentional\u00a0game balancing that has successfully kept a relatively large swath of pilots relevant.<\/p>\n<p>Of course, the average is just part of the story.\u00a0From this compiled data we can also plot histograms of pilot skill. In design terms, these breakdowns show largely what we expect to see: FFG is purposefully including pilots across the spectrum of pilot skills, so the chart of all pilots has a fairly\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Normal_distribution\">normal\u00a0distribution<\/a> with just a bit of skew.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.rocketshipgames.com\/blogs\/tjkopena\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/02\/ps-all.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-5520\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rocketshipgames.com\/blogs\/tjkopena\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/02\/ps-all.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"452\" height=\"312\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.rocketshipgames.com\/blogs\/tjkopena\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/02\/ps-all.png 452w, https:\/\/www.rocketshipgames.com\/blogs\/tjkopena\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/02\/ps-all-300x207.png 300w, https:\/\/www.rocketshipgames.com\/blogs\/tjkopena\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/02\/ps-all-60x41.png 60w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 452px) 100vw, 452px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>The breakdowns\u00a0of actual\u00a0use though show a different story, but one you might expect from playing the game for a while: A ton of\u00a0PS2 pilots see use, and then a mix of aces between PS7 to PS9. Recently though this has smoothed out, with\u00a0PS2 pilots seeing comparatively less use than they have for the past few years, and comparatively more pilots from the middle range of PS4&#8211;6 hitting the table.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.rocketshipgames.com\/blogs\/tjkopena\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/02\/ps-alltime.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-5526\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rocketshipgames.com\/blogs\/tjkopena\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/02\/ps-alltime.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"456\" height=\"312\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.rocketshipgames.com\/blogs\/tjkopena\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/02\/ps-alltime.png 456w, https:\/\/www.rocketshipgames.com\/blogs\/tjkopena\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/02\/ps-alltime-300x205.png 300w, https:\/\/www.rocketshipgames.com\/blogs\/tjkopena\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/02\/ps-alltime-60x41.png 60w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 456px) 100vw, 456px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.rocketshipgames.com\/blogs\/tjkopena\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/02\/ps-recent.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-5527\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rocketshipgames.com\/blogs\/tjkopena\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/02\/ps-recent.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"453\" height=\"312\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.rocketshipgames.com\/blogs\/tjkopena\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/02\/ps-recent.png 453w, https:\/\/www.rocketshipgames.com\/blogs\/tjkopena\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/02\/ps-recent-300x207.png 300w, https:\/\/www.rocketshipgames.com\/blogs\/tjkopena\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/02\/ps-recent-60x41.png 60w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 453px) 100vw, 453px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Indeed, we can see that development\u00a0by observing\u00a0the shift\u00a0to a larger\u00a0pilot skill spread in\u00a0looking at the top 5 most used pilots for &#8220;all time&#8221; (again, this is data starting in July\u00a02014) versus the past four months:<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.rocketshipgames.com\/blogs\/tjkopena\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/02\/topuses.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-5567\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rocketshipgames.com\/blogs\/tjkopena\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/02\/topuses.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"536\" height=\"314\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.rocketshipgames.com\/blogs\/tjkopena\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/02\/topuses.png 536w, https:\/\/www.rocketshipgames.com\/blogs\/tjkopena\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/02\/topuses-300x176.png 300w, https:\/\/www.rocketshipgames.com\/blogs\/tjkopena\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/02\/topuses-60x35.png 60w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 536px) 100vw, 536px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>All hail the <a href=\"http:\/\/xwing-miniatures.wikia.com\/wiki\/Syndicate_Thug\">Syndicate Thug<\/a>, the unsung but everlasting pilot skill 2 power of the galaxy!<\/p>\n<h2><a href=\"https:\/\/www.rocketshipgames.com\/blogs\/tjkopena\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/02\/Syndicate-thug-1-.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-5523\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rocketshipgames.com\/blogs\/tjkopena\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/02\/Syndicate-thug-1-.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"418\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.rocketshipgames.com\/blogs\/tjkopena\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/02\/Syndicate-thug-1-.png 300w, https:\/\/www.rocketshipgames.com\/blogs\/tjkopena\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/02\/Syndicate-thug-1--215x300.png 215w, https:\/\/www.rocketshipgames.com\/blogs\/tjkopena\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/02\/Syndicate-thug-1--60x84.png 60w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a>Lists<\/h2>\n<p>Using the data we can additionally develop some simple\u00a0ideas on\u00a0how to think about lists overall. Most of my &#8220;more serious&#8221; lists are built around a simple four-bullet rubric, previously <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rocketshipgames.com\/blogs\/tjkopena\/2016\/12\/x-wing-beginner-squad-building\/\">discussed at length<\/a>:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Durability:<\/strong>\u00a0Lots of hull points and shields without totally trading away agility;<\/li>\n<li><strong>Firepower:<\/strong>\u00a0Lots of\u00a0baseline attacks, plenty of red dice to throw;<\/li>\n<li><strong>Ships:<\/strong> Just enough ships to be robust and capable while remaining\u00a0manageable;<\/li>\n<li><strong>One Trick:<\/strong> A single special fancy play or combo.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Those guidelines\u00a0are in contrast to, say, fancy 2-ship builds with\u00a0a ton of upgrades, true swarms with overwhelming cheap\u00a0ships, and other list archetypes.<\/p>\n<p>The question then is what defines &#8220;lots&#8221; of hull points, firepower, etc.. In order to do some objective\u00a0evaluation of my own lists\u00a0by that rubric, I previously came up with a couple <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rocketshipgames.com\/blogs\/tjkopena\/2016\/12\/x-wing-beginner-squad-building\/\">simple quantitative metrics<\/a> based on intuition and roughly confirmed with\u00a0a manual sampling of popular\u00a0list designs:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Durability:<\/strong>\u00a0Survivability is based on\u00a0two sub-metrics; I tend to focus on the first and make secondary decisions by the other&#8212;\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Hull Points+Shields:<\/strong> Sum combined hull points and shields of 22 constitutes a durable squadron that can outlast\u00a0a beating.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Agility:<\/strong> Average 3 agility per ship is good, 2 is average, and 1 is inferior.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li><strong>Firepower:<\/strong>\u00a0Baseline sum total of 10 attacks\u00a0or more constitutes high firepower.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Ships:<\/strong> Lists with\u00a03 or 4 ships are the\u00a0easiest to play\u00a0effectively.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Using the data in <code>lists.csv<\/code>, the reasonableness\u00a0of these concrete metrics can be further evaluated against the many many competitive lists registered in List Juggler (again: about 22,000 since 2014). Calculations for those measures across all reported lists are:<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.rocketshipgames.com\/blogs\/tjkopena\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/02\/metrics.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-5569\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rocketshipgames.com\/blogs\/tjkopena\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/02\/metrics.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"706\" height=\"293\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.rocketshipgames.com\/blogs\/tjkopena\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/02\/metrics.png 706w, https:\/\/www.rocketshipgames.com\/blogs\/tjkopena\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/02\/metrics-300x125.png 300w, https:\/\/www.rocketshipgames.com\/blogs\/tjkopena\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/02\/metrics-60x25.png 60w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 706px) 100vw, 706px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>The minimums here are mostly not informative because of the incomplete\u00a0lists as discussed above. The others are valid and interesting though.<\/p>\n<p>The max hull +\u00a0shields of a whopping 46 points are from a handful of lists with a\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/xwing-miniatures.wikia.com\/wiki\/Scimitar_Squadron_Pilot\">Scimitar Squadron Pilot<\/a> (TIE Bomber) and 4x <a href=\"http:\/\/xwing-miniatures.wikia.com\/wiki\/Omicron_Group_Pilot\">Omicron Group Pilots<\/a>\u00a0(Lamda-class Shuttles). The average of 21 and median of 20 though indicate\u00a0that my threshold of at least 22 for a &#8220;durable&#8221; list was a\u00a0reasonable estimate, capturing\u00a039% of the lists. In the future I&#8217;ll probably move that threshold in my own thinking to either at least 23HP+S, for the top 1\/3 of the lists, or at least\u00a021HP+S, for roughly the top half.<\/p>\n<p>One minimum in this table that\u00a0is meaningful despite the incomplete lists is\u00a0agility 0, which occurs in a large\u00a0number of lists that have been common in competition. Double Ghosts are just one example. As expected just based on the very short\u00a0scale of the agility\u00a0stat, average agility 2 is a good target to hit,\u00a0with about half the lists falling at or below\u00a0that. Beyond that simple metric, the tradeoff in agility versus hull points and shields is more complex to evaluate. I have some thoughts on a computed metric combining hull points, shields, and agility, and hope to develop that in the future in order to better capture\u00a0and evaluate ship and squadron robustness quantitatively.<\/p>\n<p>In a sense just somewhat counter-intuitively but to be expected, max attacks comes from true swarms like 8x Academy Pilots or Z-95s, and some hybrids with an Interceptor or such thrown in there. My threshold of at least 10 attacks is well higher though, capturing only 20% of the lists. In the future I might consider high firepower to be 9 attacks, for the top 1\/3 of the lists, or 8 attacks, for roughly the top half.<\/p>\n<p>I was expecting the average number of ships to be\u00a0a bit closer to 4, driven upward by previously seemingly popular swarms. However, true swarms\u00a0turn out to be a miniscule portion of the lists\u00a0fielded in competition, and even 5 ships is very rare. This data supports my belief\u00a0that <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rocketshipgames.com\/blogs\/tjkopena\/2016\/12\/x-wing-beginner-squad-building\/\">most\u00a0people struggle to fly even that many ships effectively<\/a>. No doubt part of the perception of swarms&#8217;\u00a0popularity was in fact their rarity\u00a0combined with their necessarily homogenous nature, whereas all the many many more 2- and 3-ship lists don&#8217;t get grouped\u00a0together mentally.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.rocketshipgames.com\/blogs\/tjkopena\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/02\/ships.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-5531\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rocketshipgames.com\/blogs\/tjkopena\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/02\/ships.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"460\" height=\"314\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.rocketshipgames.com\/blogs\/tjkopena\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/02\/ships.png 460w, https:\/\/www.rocketshipgames.com\/blogs\/tjkopena\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/02\/ships-300x205.png 300w, https:\/\/www.rocketshipgames.com\/blogs\/tjkopena\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/02\/ships-60x41.png 60w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 460px) 100vw, 460px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>As expected, most people fly 3-ship squadrons, with the next big group fielding just 2. Squadron points being what they are, this necessarily means the latter are\u00a0flying higher cost pilots loaded with upgrades, which lines up with looking around at game nights and seeing\u00a0people working out complicated webs\u00a0of pilot and upgrade combos. I still <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rocketshipgames.com\/blogs\/tjkopena\/2016\/12\/x-wing-beginner-squad-building\/\">recommend<\/a> beginners stick to 3 or 4 ships\u00a0until they have a solid grip on basic flying.<\/p>\n<p>As a sidenote related to squadron sizes albeit in complex fashion, most people are spending about 72&#8211;78 squadron points on ships\/pilots rather than upgrades. As noted in the table above, about half the lists have an average\u00a0pilot cost of 27 or 28 points. Some\u00a0computation of ship points versus upgrade points is a promising measure to develop in the future for evaluating the characteristics of given\u00a0squadrons.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.rocketshipgames.com\/blogs\/tjkopena\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/02\/shippoints-alltime.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-5532\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rocketshipgames.com\/blogs\/tjkopena\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/02\/shippoints-alltime.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"410\" height=\"319\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.rocketshipgames.com\/blogs\/tjkopena\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/02\/shippoints-alltime.png 410w, https:\/\/www.rocketshipgames.com\/blogs\/tjkopena\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/02\/shippoints-alltime-300x233.png 300w, https:\/\/www.rocketshipgames.com\/blogs\/tjkopena\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/02\/shippoints-alltime-60x47.png 60w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 410px) 100vw, 410px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Looking at the table of list metrics\u00a0above\u00a0for all lists recorded since 2014 versus recent lists used\u00a0in the past four months, there does seem to have been a small trend\u00a0toward:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Smaller squadrons;<\/li>\n<li>Slightly lesser baseline\u00a0stats across the board;<\/li>\n<li>More\u00a0points spent on ships per average;<\/li>\n<li>Fewer points spent on ships in total.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Together this all\u00a0implies a trend toward more utilization of unique\u00a0pilots and upgrades, slightly more favoring of special abilities over bigger squadrons and basic\u00a0dogfighting. That makes sense intuitively thinking about\u00a0some of the ships\u00a0and cards\u00a0that have come out recently versus the earlier, simpler collection. However, more analysis would have to be done to determine if this is a statistically significant trend\u00a0or not.<\/p>\n<h2>Conclusion<\/h2>\n<p>In the end, I got an answer to my question about whether or not a +3PS upgrade on a Green Squadron Pilot would achieve anything meaningful or not, though that&#8217;s not the same as proving it&#8217;s a good idea&#8212;effectiveness is not necessarily efficiency, and vice versa, and of course there&#8217;s more to a good squadron than any single decision. In the end after trying a list with that a couple times I think I&#8217;m going to try harder to free up two more points to put Push the Limit on that pilot instead&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>That analysis also lead to some additional\u00a0confirmation of my rough\u00a0metrics for evaluating squadrons by my <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rocketshipgames.com\/blogs\/tjkopena\/2016\/12\/x-wing-beginner-squad-building\/\">four-bullet rubric\u00a0of durability, firepower, ships, and one trick<\/a>, and\u00a0generated data to refine the concrete quantitative thresholds\u00a0a bit.<\/p>\n<p>Along the way\u00a0I wrote some\u00a0tools to pull data from a couple\u00a0of the great resources the <em>X-Wing<\/em> fan community has created, namely <a href=\"https:\/\/github.com\/elistevens\/xws-spec\">XWS Spec<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/github.com\/guidokessels\/xwing-data\">X-Wing Data<\/a>, and <a href=\"http:\/\/lists.starwarsclubhouse.com\/\">ListJuggler<\/a>. Many thanks to the developers and contributors to those tools and resources! In return, I hope others are able to make use of the <a href=\"https:\/\/github.com\/RocketshipGames\/xwing-csv\">compiled data<\/a> I&#8217;ve made available for easy analysis. If\u00a0there&#8217;s interest I&#8217;ll update the archives and post announcements as new ships are released, so please let me know if you actually use the data. I also plan to update these scripts in the future to incorporate additional data, namely upgrades in addition to pilots, as well as\u00a0perform other aggregation and calculations.<\/p>\n<p>Thanks for reading!<\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_5534\" style=\"width: 970px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.rocketshipgames.com\/blogs\/tjkopena\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/02\/12360129_10101584814441056_6928105121590042860_n.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-5534\" class=\"wp-image-5534 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rocketshipgames.com\/blogs\/tjkopena\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/02\/12360129_10101584814441056_6928105121590042860_n.jpg\" width=\"960\" height=\"718\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.rocketshipgames.com\/blogs\/tjkopena\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/02\/12360129_10101584814441056_6928105121590042860_n.jpg 960w, https:\/\/www.rocketshipgames.com\/blogs\/tjkopena\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/02\/12360129_10101584814441056_6928105121590042860_n-300x224.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.rocketshipgames.com\/blogs\/tjkopena\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/02\/12360129_10101584814441056_6928105121590042860_n-768x574.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.rocketshipgames.com\/blogs\/tjkopena\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/02\/12360129_10101584814441056_6928105121590042860_n-60x45.jpg 60w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 960px) 100vw, 960px\" \/><\/a><p id=\"caption-attachment-5534\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">A classic albeit underpowered matchup!<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Recently I got hassled at the local shop for breaking out my B-Wings for yet another Friday of X-Wing, so\u00a0I started developing\u00a0some new\u00a0lists.\u00a0In one idea\u00a0I had a\u00a0point to spend and open slots on a\u00a0Green Squadron A-Wing. I realized that you could combo Veteran Instincts, A-Wing Test Pilot, and Adaptability to bump it\u00a0up 3 pilot skill &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rocketshipgames.com\/blogs\/tjkopena\/2017\/02\/x-wing-pilot-statistics\/\">Continue reading <span class=\"meta-nav\">&rarr;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":5506,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[419],"tags":[274,36,307],"class_list":["post-5505","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-rules-and-tactics","tag-miniatures","tag-tactics","tag-x-wing"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rocketshipgames.com\/blogs\/tjkopena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5505","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rocketshipgames.com\/blogs\/tjkopena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rocketshipgames.com\/blogs\/tjkopena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rocketshipgames.com\/blogs\/tjkopena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rocketshipgames.com\/blogs\/tjkopena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5505"}],"version-history":[{"count":10,"href":"https:\/\/www.rocketshipgames.com\/blogs\/tjkopena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5505\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5593,"href":"https:\/\/www.rocketshipgames.com\/blogs\/tjkopena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5505\/revisions\/5593"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rocketshipgames.com\/blogs\/tjkopena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/5506"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rocketshipgames.com\/blogs\/tjkopena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5505"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rocketshipgames.com\/blogs\/tjkopena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5505"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rocketshipgames.com\/blogs\/tjkopena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5505"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}