{"id":1784,"date":"2014-02-18T11:03:28","date_gmt":"2014-02-18T16:03:28","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.rocketshipgames.com\/blogs\/tjkopena\/?p=1784"},"modified":"2014-02-18T18:42:08","modified_gmt":"2014-02-18T23:42:08","slug":"40k-escalating-theoryhammer","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rocketshipgames.com\/blogs\/tjkopena\/2014\/02\/40k-escalating-theoryhammer\/","title":{"rendered":"40k: Escalating Theoryhammer"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.rocketshipgames.com\/blogs\/tjkopena\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/02\/escalation-cover.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignright  wp-image-1785\" alt=\"escalation-cover\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rocketshipgames.com\/blogs\/tjkopena\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/02\/escalation-cover-193x300.png\" width=\"116\" height=\"180\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.rocketshipgames.com\/blogs\/tjkopena\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/02\/escalation-cover-193x300.png 193w, https:\/\/www.rocketshipgames.com\/blogs\/tjkopena\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/02\/escalation-cover.png 319w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 116px) 100vw, 116px\" \/><\/a>I&#8217;ve already laid out a lot of thoughts on the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rocketshipgames.com\/blogs\/tjkopena\/2014\/01\/40k-an-escalation-of-bad-design\/\">many problems with GW&#8217;s latest expansions<\/a>. In our parts, after an extensive survey, <a href=\"http:\/\/redcapscorner.com\/\">Redcap&#8217;s<\/a> has decided to ban Escalation for its <a href=\"http:\/\/pagegaming.com\/forums\/viewtopic.php?f=5&amp;t=1241\">regular tournaments<\/a>. \u00a0There&#8217;s still some discussion going around though, so these are a couple further thoughts.<\/p>\n<h2>Training<\/h2>\n<p>One notion is that if we don&#8217;t regularly play with these components, players from our community will be unprepared when they go outside to other events. \u00a0I don&#8217;t think that&#8217;s a concern. Whether the global community consensus is correct or not, I think that&#8217;s totally misreading the direction things are heading. Unless something changes, most likely you won&#8217;t encounter them at other tournaments either. \u00a0Taking a quick survey of where things stand with some bigger events:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>LVO: No Escalation or Stronghold.<\/li>\n<li>3++Con: No Escalation or Stronghold.<\/li>\n<li>Adepticon: Only the special Exterminatus track allows Lords of War.<\/li>\n<li>Nova: No official ruling yet, but their survey pretty conclusively had\u00a0little support for allowing Escalation and Stronghold, though I could\u00a0believe they&#8217;ll be allowed in parts of some tracks (e.g., Narrative,\u00a0the 2k games in the Team Trio, etc., not the GT &amp; 1k Trios).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Among other local monthly tournaments around Philadelphia, both <a href=\"http:\/\/www.sggamesandhobbies.com\/\">Stomping Grounds<\/a> and\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/alternateu.com\/\">Alternate Universes<\/a> frequently ban allies and generally put a lot of soft\u00a0pressure against power-combos, let alone supers. \u00a0Stomping Grounds&#8217; first\u00a0tournament this year did not allow hardly anything. \u00a0Based on reports from players who&#8217;ve gone out there,\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.showcasecomicsandgames.net\/\">Showcase<\/a> is\u00a0apparently doing a lot of ad hoc comp as well, again against regular\u00a0combos let alone supers.<\/p>\n<h2>Decision Making<\/h2>\n<p>There&#8217;s also a notion kicking around that maybe D close combat weapons are ok. They&#8217;re\u00a0obviously less powerful then D blast templates with crazy ranges. \u00a0But\u00a0D as a strength just doesn&#8217;t make sense in game terms.<\/p>\n<p>Consider a 35pt Rhino versus a 250pt Landraider, both undamaged.\u00a0Against the previous heavy hitter, a Str 10 AP 1 hit, the Rhino would\u00a0with 100% probably at least lose a hull point, and with 42%\u00a0probability explode and be instantly destroyed. \u00a0The Landraider would\u00a0only face a 50% chance of at least losing a hull point, and a 17%\u00a0chance of exploding. \u00a0Even setting aside other Landraider advantages,\u00a0that&#8217;s a reasonable tradeoff between points &amp; survivability. \u00a0There&#8217;s\u00a0an actual strategic list making decision to be had there.<\/p>\n<p>Against a Str D AP 1 hit, both the 35pt Rhino and 250pt Landraider are\u00a0necessarily at least losing a hull point, and both face the same 92%\u00a0chance of being instantly destroyed. \u00a0There&#8217;s no tradeoff to be had, a\u00a0major decision and strategic component is eliminated from the game.<\/p>\n<p>In point of fact, the 250pt Landraider, generally considered one of\u00a0the most armoured and most expensive units in the game, is actually\u00a0more likely do die than a 6pt Guardsman: The latter only faces an\u00a083.3% chance of death to a Str D hit. \u00a0Like I&#8217;ve said before, in the\u00a0presence of D, you shouldn&#8217;t take anything but your own supers with D\u00a0weapons and hordes of Guardsmen, because everything else is at least\u00a0as dead as the latter, if not more so (somewhat ridiculously).<\/p>\n<p>For a quick explanation of those numbers:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Str 10 AP 1 against AV11 auto-glances, has a 5\/6 chance to penetrate, and on penetration a 3\/6 chance to explode (don&#8217;t forget the +2 bonus on the damage results table for AP1): 5\/6*3\/6=42% chance of instant death.<\/li>\n<li>Str 10 AP 1 against AV14 has a 3\/6 chance to glance, a 2\/6 chance to penetrate, and on penetration a 3\/6 chance to explode: 2\/6*3\/6 = 17%\u00a0chance of instant death.<\/li>\n<li>Str D AP 1 against any vehicle has a 1\/6 chance to penetrate and a 3\/6 chance to explode on that penetration; the other 5\/6 of the time it just outright explodes:\u00a0(1\/6*3\/6)+5\/6 = 92%\u00a0chance of instant death.<\/li>\n<li>Str D against any single wound model has only a 5\/6 chance to kill that model: 5\/6 = 83% chance of instant death.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>Closing Thoughts<\/h2>\n<p>Obviously in an actual game there are tons of other factors, but theory\u00a0does actually say useful things about the game. \u00a0In this case I can&#8217;t\u00a0believe anyone could look at those numbers and not have serious\u00a0concerns about not just those weapons being overpowered, but the\u00a0degradation of the game as a game. \u00a0Before 5th edition 40k was mostly\u00a0a super expensive game of rock-paper-scissors. \u00a0Numbers like the above\u00a0indicate the expansions are going back to that state at full speed. \u00a0For the moment tournaments seem to be all coming to that consensus as well and responding to it by banning the supplements outright.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>I&#8217;ve already laid out a lot of thoughts on the many problems with GW&#8217;s latest expansions. In our parts, after an extensive survey, Redcap&#8217;s has decided to ban Escalation for its regular tournaments. \u00a0There&#8217;s still some discussion going around though, so these are a couple further thoughts. Training One notion is that if we don&#8217;t &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rocketshipgames.com\/blogs\/tjkopena\/2014\/02\/40k-escalating-theoryhammer\/\">Continue reading <span class=\"meta-nav\">&rarr;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[398],"tags":[272,46,274,10],"class_list":["post-1784","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-game-design","tag-40k","tag-apocalypse","tag-miniatures","tag-rules"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rocketshipgames.com\/blogs\/tjkopena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1784","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rocketshipgames.com\/blogs\/tjkopena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rocketshipgames.com\/blogs\/tjkopena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rocketshipgames.com\/blogs\/tjkopena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rocketshipgames.com\/blogs\/tjkopena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1784"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.rocketshipgames.com\/blogs\/tjkopena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1784\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1787,"href":"https:\/\/www.rocketshipgames.com\/blogs\/tjkopena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1784\/revisions\/1787"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rocketshipgames.com\/blogs\/tjkopena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1784"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rocketshipgames.com\/blogs\/tjkopena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1784"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rocketshipgames.com\/blogs\/tjkopena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1784"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}